Amsterdam, the Netherlands – Researchers Robert C. Duncan and Andrew Parece formulated and proposed a novel method to determine country rankings for past, present and future Olympic Games. The researchers' "population-adjusted probability ranking" is detailed in the article “Population-adjusted national rankings in the Olympics” which was recently published in the Journal of Sports Analytics, a publication by IOS Press, now part of Sage.
The article's authors, Robert C. Duncan (University of Texas) and Andrew Parece (Charles River Associates), discuss the historical approach to the news media's ranking of countries since the Olympic Games began in 1896. Participating countries have been ranked by either the number of gold medals won or by each country's total gold, silver and bronze medal counts. Ranking by medal counts systematically favors larger-population countries over smaller population countries as they benefit from a larger pool of athletes.
To adjust for population bias, authors Duncan and Parece propose a novel method: a population-inclusive ranking system. Duncan and Parece formulated a “population-adjusted probability ranking” which proposes to rank by comparing real Olympic results to an idealized reference model in which the populations within all medal-winning countries worldwide have equal capacity and motivation, per person, for winning medals.
The authors demonstrate the utility of probability ranking via population-adjusted national rankings for the three most recent summer Olympic Games: 2020 Tokyo Olympics, 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics and 2012 London Olympics. The source data used for these cases are available in online archives of national medal counts (Olympics.com 2024) and of national populations (United Nations 2022).
The ranking method introduced by Duncan and Parece was favorably reviewed in a The New York TimesOpinion article written by veteran business and economics columnist Peter Coy on July 22, 2024.
The authors encourage sports media and public information sources to use population-adjusted probability ranking when reporting and assessing national performance in the Olympics. During the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris as well as for future games, probability rankings will be posted online at https://www.olympicnationalrankings.com/ and updated daily. The authors hope this method makes the Olympics more fun for everyone, while raising appreciation of the determined efforts made by athletes in many different countries to achieve Olympic excellence.
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NOTES FOR EDITORS ARTICLE
Duncan, Robert C and Parece, Andrew. Population-adjusted national rankings in the Olympics. Journal of Sports Analytics 2024. 10(1), 87-104. doi: 10.3233/JSA-240874
ABOUT THE JOURNAL OF SPORTS ANALYTICS (JSA)
The Journal of Sports Analytics (JSA) aims to be the central forum for the discussion of practical applications of sports analytics research, serving team owners, general managers, coaches, fans, and academics. We invite analytical research on any single sport or across sports that seeks to improve our understanding of the game or strategies for improving a team or a league. JSA has a Journal Impact Factor of 0.6 according to Journal Citation Reports (Clarivate, 2024) and is published by IOS Press, now part of Sage. https://www.iospress.com/catalog/journals/journal-of-sports-analytics
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IOS Press is an international scientific, technical, medical (STM) publishing house established in 1987 in Amsterdam. We produce around 90 journals and 70 books annually in a broad range of subject categories, primarily specializing in health and life sciences (including neurosciences, medical informatics, cancer research, and rehabilitation) and computer sciences (including artificial intelligence, data science, and semantic web). In addition, we offer specialized services that support scientific advancement. www.iospress.com
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Sage is a global academic publisher of books, journals, and library resources with a growing range of technologies to enable discovery, access, and engagement. Believing that research and education are critical in shaping society, 24-year-old Sara Miller McCune founded Sage in 1965. Today, we are controlled by a group of trustees charged with maintaining our independence and mission indefinitely. https://group.sagepub.com
